“Train to be a plumber.”-Geoffrey Hinton3 min read

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(Above image generated using a prompt from Claude Opus 4 and ChatGPT-4o)
(Below Snippet from summary generated using Google AI studio+Gemini 2.5 Pro (free), using the youtube transcript)

Final Messages & Outlook (1:17:19 – 1:19:33, 1:24:08 – 1:25:39, 1:28:10 – End)

  • To World Leaders: We need “highly regulated capitalism.”
  • To the Average Person: Individual actions have limited impact (like separating plastics for climate change). The key is to pressure governments to force large companies to invest heavily in AI safety research.
  • Call to Action on Safety: There’s still a chance to figure out how to develop AI that won’t want to take over. Enormous resources should be dedicated to this, because if not, AI will take over.
  • Hopefulness: He is “agnostic” and genuinely doesn’t know the outcome. When depressed, he thinks humans are “toast”; when cheerful, he thinks “we’ll figure out a way.”
  • Urgency: “Unless we do something soon, we’re near the end.”
  • Plumber Advice Not a Joke: He reiterates his earlier advice seriously, as plumbers are well-paid and their physical work is harder for AI to replicate soon.
  • Other Concerned Experts: He notes a surprising number of people within the AI field now share his concerns but are less public, perhaps due to ongoing employment. He, being older and retired, can speak more freely.

(Below snippet from summary generated using Claude opus 04(paid))

Advice and Predictions

Career Advice in AI World

  • “Train to be a plumber” – physical manipulation jobs safer longer
  • Paralegal assistants won’t be needed much longer
  • Wealth inequality will increase dramatically
  • Universal Basic Income might prevent starvation but won’t provide purpose/dignity

For Those in Power

  • Need “highly regulated capitalism”
  • Force companies to use resources for safety research
  • Current politicians don’t understand technology
  • International cooperation needed but unlikely

For Average People

  • Not much individuals can do
  • Like climate change – not solved by recycling
  • Can pressure governments to force companies to work on AI safety

Timeline Predictions

  • Superintelligence: possibly 10-20 years (maybe less, maybe 50)
  • Job displacement: Already happening
  • University graduates already struggling to find jobs
  • CEO example: Company reduced from 7,000 to 3,000 employees due to AI

Hope for the Future

  • “There’s still a chance” to develop safe AI
  • Should put “enormous resources” into safety research
  • Personally “agnostic” about outcomes
  • When depressed: “people are toast”
  • When cheerful: “we’ll figure out a way”

Key Quotes and Analogies

  • “If you want to know what life’s like when you’re not the apex intelligence, ask a chicken”
  • On superintelligence taking over: “We need to figure out how to make them not want to take over”
  • Mother-baby analogy: Evolution made babies control smarter mothers through crying
  • Tiger cub analogy: Must ensure it never wants to kill you when grown
  • On human specialness: “We thought we were at the center of the universe… white people thought they were special… we just tend to want to think we’re special”
  • Final warning: “We have to face the possibility that unless we do something soon, we’re near the end”

Current State of AI Leaders

  • Some privately believe in dystopian future but lie publicly
  • Motivated by power more than money
  • Sam Altman previously said AI “will probably kill us all,” now says don’t worry
  • Disconnect between public statements and private beliefs

Final Message

The biggest threat to human happiness is joblessness – people need purpose and to feel useful. Mass unemployment is “definitely more probable than not” and is already beginning. Urgent action is needed but the political systems are “all going in the wrong direction.” His advice if you don’t have money: “Train to be a plumber.”

Full video–>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giT0ytynSqg

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